Oil Embargo

Stranglehold

Japan is a tiny island with almost no natural resources. To run their factories and navy, they imported 80% of their oil from the United States.

• Trap: In July 1941, FDR froze all Japanese assets and cut off their oil supply.
• Choice: This was an economic death sentence. Japan had two choices:
  Starve
  Surrender their entire empire and retreat to their island.

  OR

  War
  Seize the oil fields in the Dutch East Indies.
• ABCD Line: The Americans, British, Chinese, and Dutch formed an encirclement to choke Japan’s economy. The Japanese viewed the attack on Pearl Harbor not as aggression, but as survival to break this “Iron Ring.”

Ultimatum

Hull Note

While the US public thought their government was negotiating for peace, the diplomats were pushing for war.

• Demand: On November 26, 1941 (10 days before the attack), Secretary of State Cordell Hull sent a note to Japan. It demanded they completely withdraw from China and Indochina immediately.
• Reaction: The Japanese ambassador was stunned. He knew his government could never accept this without total humiliation. He called it “a declaration of war.”
• Goal:
  Critics argue the Hull Note was designed to be rejected. It forced Japan to strike the first blow so the US could enter the war as the “victim.”

Blueprint

McCollum Memo

This is the “smoking gun” document declassified in 1994.

• McCollum

  Author: Arthur McCollum was a Lieutenant Commander in Naval Intelligence. In October 1940, he wrote a secret memo for FDR.

• Plan: It listed 8 specific actions to provoke Japan into attacking the US. These included keeping the fleet in Hawaii, embargoing oil, and sending submarines near Japanese waters.
• Quote: The memo concludes: “If by these means Japan could be led to commit an overt act of war, so much the better.”
• Result: FDR implemented all 8 of McCollum’s recommendations.

Missing Carriers

Attack

If FDR knew an attack was coming, why did he let it happen?

• Bait: The US Pacific Fleet was moved from San Diego to Pearl Harbor against the advice of the admirals. They felt like “sitting ducks” in the shallow harbor.

• Miracle: On the morning of the attack, the three Aircraft Carriers (the most valuable ships in the navy) were conveniently out at sea on “training missions.”
• Damage: The Japanese only sank the Battleships (old WWI-era ships that were becoming obsolete). The modern core of the navy survived intact. Conspiracy theorists argue the battleships were sacrificed to enrage the American public.

Trap Snaps

Germany Declares War

This is the most important part. FDR didn’t just want to fight Japan; he wanted to fight Germany.

• Pledge: FDR had promised American mothers he would not send their sons to die in foreign wars. He couldn’t attack Hitler without a reason.
• Alliance: Germany, Italy, and Japan had an alliance called the Tripartite Pact. By provoking Japan to attack, FDR knew Hitler would be honor-bound to declare war on the US.
• Result: On December 11, Hitler declared war on America. FDR got exactly what he wanted: a justifiable war against Nazi Germany.

The Conclusion

Summary

Pearl Harbor was a tactical victory for Japan but a strategic suicide. For the US leadership, it may have been a calculated sacrifice. By squeezing Japan until they snapped, FDR managed to overcome the anti-war sentiment in America and enter the conflict to save Britain and crush Germany.

The McCollum Memo (October 7, 1940): US Navy Archives. (The 8-point plan to provoke Japan into an overt act of war).
The Hull Note (November 26, 1941): Diplomatic Correspondence. (The ultimatum sent to Japan demanding total withdrawal).
FDR’s “Day of Infamy” Speech: Draft vs. Final. (Shows how he framed the narrative of an “unprovoked” attack).
Diary of Henry Stimson: Secretary of War. (Entry from Nov 25, 1941: “The question was how we should maneuver them into the position of firing the first shot…”).
Magic Intercepts: Department of Defense. (Transcripts of Japanese diplomatic codes that the US was reading in real-time before the attack).

Robert Stinnett: Day of Deceit: The Truth About FDR and Pearl Harbor (Free Press). The definitive revisionist book. Stinnett served in the Navy and spent 17 years researching declassified files.
John Toland: Infamy: Pearl Harbor and Its Aftermath (Doubleday). Pulitzer Prize winner who argues that Washington had foreknowledge.
George Victor: The Pearl Harbor Myth: Rethinking the Unthinkable (Potomac Books). Argues that allowing the attack was a calculated strategic decision by FDR to enter the war against Germany.
Charles Beard: President Roosevelt and the Coming of the War, 1941 (Yale University Press). One of the first historians to challenge the official story in 1948.
Rear Admiral Robert A. Theobald: The Final Secret of Pearl Harbor (Devin-Adair). A US Navy Admiral who argues that the fleet commanders in Hawaii were denied intelligence to ensure the attack was successful.
Husband E. Kimmel: Admiral Kimmel’s Story (Regnery). The memoir of the Commander in Chief of the Pacific Fleet who was fired and blamed for the attack. He claims he was set up.
James Rusbridger: Betrayal at Pearl Harbor (Summit Books). Investigates whether Winston Churchill knew about the attack plans and withheld the information to ensure the US joined the war.

Gordon Prange: At Dawn We Slept (Penguin). The standard academic view that the US was simply incompetent and underestimated Japan rather than a conspiracy.
Roberta Wohlstetter: Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision (Stanford University Press). Argues the “noise” of too much intelligence caused the failure.